Will Trump Torch the Global Economy?
At least it is confirmed for us. Donald Trump wants regime change in Iran. His cancellation of the JCPOA was a decision born of his myopia. He has surrounded himself with people who reinforce his view and manipulate him via his vanity.
And the price of implementing his current plan will be a global debt crisis which no one will escape. The problem will be very few will see the links.
He wants to remake America and the world in his image while undoing anything President Obama touched. Most of this I’m wholly on board with. Obama was a vandal. So, however, were Bush the Lesser and Bill Clinton.
We’re All Neocons NowWe have a leaked (yeah, right) memo explaining this is the plan. But, we didn’t need this if we were being honest with ourselves. Nothing Trump has done since he’s been in office has been contra to this goal; overthrowing the theocracy in Iran.
In fact, it has been a step-wise move in this direction with each decision he’s made. Commentators I respect and have learned at the knee of still want to give Trump the benefit of the doubt. Not me.
It’s right there in plain text.
Trump has capitalized on the insane Deep State opposition to his presidency to politicize this goal and get his base to ab-react for regime change, when he explicitly said that was off the table at his inauguration.
If the Democrats and Merkel want to stay in the deal, then the deal must be bad. Obama Bad, Trump Good. Trump is Orange Jesus. He knows stuff, man.
What was a worry about Israeli influence in his administration in 2017 has now morphed into a call to duty to create chaos in Iran to assuage the American ego by saving the Iranian people from themselves.
You have to hand it to these folks, they understand how to run a successful mass psy-op. Beware the Master Persuader, as Scott Adams would put it, his skills can be put to any use.
These men and their Deep State handlers/billionaire donors have had a strategic goal for decades, remake the Middle East for Israel and the Oil Complex, bottle up Russia and China.
Donald Trump’s patriotism is revealed to be jingoism. But, he made this clear in his speech to the U.N. last year. At some point you have to put away childish things and face the world we’ve got.
And that world is one of extreme uncertainty.
We’re All Neocons NowWe have a leaked (yeah, right) memo explaining this is the plan. But, we didn’t need this if we were being honest with ourselves. Nothing Trump has done since he’s been in office has been contra to this goal; overthrowing the theocracy in Iran.
In fact, it has been a step-wise move in this direction with each decision he’s made. Commentators I respect and have learned at the knee of still want to give Trump the benefit of the doubt. Not me.
It’s right there in plain text.
Trump has capitalized on the insane Deep State opposition to his presidency to politicize this goal and get his base to ab-react for regime change, when he explicitly said that was off the table at his inauguration.
If the Democrats and Merkel want to stay in the deal, then the deal must be bad. Obama Bad, Trump Good. Trump is Orange Jesus. He knows stuff, man.
What was a worry about Israeli influence in his administration in 2017 has now morphed into a call to duty to create chaos in Iran to assuage the American ego by saving the Iranian people from themselves.
You have to hand it to these folks, they understand how to run a successful mass psy-op. Beware the Master Persuader, as Scott Adams would put it, his skills can be put to any use.
These men and their Deep State handlers/billionaire donors have had a strategic goal for decades, remake the Middle East for Israel and the Oil Complex, bottle up Russia and China.
Donald Trump’s patriotism is revealed to be jingoism. But, he made this clear in his speech to the U.N. last year. At some point you have to put away childish things and face the world we’ve got.
And that world is one of extreme uncertainty.
Back to the FutureAs I said the other day, Trump wants to reset the clock back to 2012. Bottle up Iran, cut its ties to the world. Remove 1 million barrels of oil per day from the markets (for his Saudi weapons customers “Look! Yuge JOBS!”). And bully our allies into getting the plan to atomize Syria back on track.
But, it’s not 2012. It’s 2018 and everything is different. Iran has friends it didn’t have then. Yes, there is local unrest and unhappiness which could grow. The rial is falling like a rock, people in Iran can’t get dollars. Not solely because Trump has cut them off from the dollar but because Iran has.
It anticipated this move by him and the chaos of today turns into the de-dollarization of tomorrow. These people still think destroying a national currency is the path to political change. It’s a dangerous gambit that doesn’t always work.
It didn’t work with Russia in 2014/5. It’s not working in Venezuela today. And if those countries have friends, China for Russia in 2015, Russia and others for Venezuela today, then the longer the regime stays in power once the worst of the crisis hits, the lower the probability regime change becomes.
I told everyone last year the Saudi gambit to isolate Qatar wouldn’t work. If they didn’t get regime change in Doha within two weeks, then the government would survive. It has and now it is free to pursue whatever it wants, having finally bought a 19% stake in Russian state oil giant Rosneft.
Trump has been signaling this moment for almost two years. Do you think Russia, Iran and China have not been game-planning this? When the attack on the ruble began in 2014, Putin did the unthinkable. In doing so revealed his central bank’s disloyalty.
By demanding to free-float the ruble, under objection from his economic advisor Alexander Kudrin and central bank President Elvira Nabullina, Putin stabilized the situation quickly. Then he ordered the Bank of Russia to assist payment of more than $50 billion in Russian corporate debt denominated in dollars from central bank reserves.
China opened up ruble/yuan swap lines to help funnel dollars into Russia. The Bank of Russia had to abandon IMF-style austerity and serve Russian interests first rather than continue playing into the hands of U.S. hybrid war tactics.
Iran has these people as its friends now. They are committed to its survival. They may not be committed to the IRGC staying in Syria post-ISIS/Al-Qaeda, but they are committed to an Iran aligned with them for the road ahead. And that Road has a Belt attached to it.
Because they know that if they lead the opposition to U.S. aggression, then they will gain allies over time. In acting this way Trump is revealing the U.S. to be the repressive, messianic global oligarch of the world order it claims the Iranian Islamic Republic to be over its citizens.
Everyone will get in line behind the Orange Emperor or suffer his wrath. Why? Because Bibi Netanyahu can’t sleep at night? Get that psychopath a plushie and leave a night light on for pity’s sake.
It also has an EU wanting to establish itself as a separate power from the U.S. Angela Merkel and French Poodle Emmanuel Macron both want an independent EU foreign policy and a Grand Army of the EU to put down any internal rebellions.
China can and will assist Iran in overcoming the sanctions. So will Turkey, who did so in 2012. Will it be enough save the Islamic Republic? Possibly. If that happens will the U.S. get what it wants?
Most probably not. National Security Advisor and Certified Crazy Person John Bolton wants to put the Saudi-backed MEK (Mujahedeen-e-Khalq) in charge, a cult-like Sunni group with zero support in Iran. You’ll hear in the coming days about how great these guys are.
Just like U.S. NGO-backed Russian agitator Alexei Navalny is promoted in the Western press even though he can’t get 2,000 people to march in Moscow on the day of Putin’s inarguration.
Sanctions Cut Both WaysRussia, ultimately, has the sanctions hammer in its control of the uranium market. It’s also a major supplier of both titanium and aluminum. The U.S. has never considered sanctioning the first two and it’s plan to sanction Rusal has been close to a disaster.
Trump believes in the primacy of the U.S. threat both militarily and financially so much that he’s willing to project it everywhere and at everyone to get what he wants in Iran. We thought he reluctantly signed those new sanctions last summer. Nonsense.
If so, he wouldn’t be using those new powers in ways that are the height of hubris. Explicit in his threats to Iran and his demands that are, as Alexander Mercouris put it at The Duran yesterday, “so extreme that no sovereign state could ever accept them and retain its independence.”
So, let’s again put away childish things and think that Trump will not take this to whatever point he thinks is necessary to get his desired outcome.
But, in doing this he will upset world financial markets already fragile from a decade of QE and an explosion of cheap dollar-denominated debt. The Fed is raising interest rates. Bond traders are resisting raising rates at the long-end of the U.S. Treasury yield curve, causing it to flatten dangerously.
Trump wants a continued weaker dollar but geopolitical uncertainty creates dollar demand because so much of the world’s debt and trade is based in it. For over a year Foreign Central Banks have been parking U.S. Treasury purchases with the Fed as the dollar weakened.
Now that trend has firmly changed.
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